Dutch consumers are expected to continue their shift toward online shopping throughout 2026, according to a new retail forecast from ABN AMRO. The bank predicts a 6 per cent increase in webshop purchases. While this indicates steady growth, it represents a cooling trend from the 6.6 per cent rise in 2025 and the 9.6 per cent jump the previous year.
Gerarda Westerhuis
Gerarda Westerhuis, a sector economist at ABN AMRO, explains that shopping has evolved into a hybrid journey where the lines between physical stores and digital platforms are blurring. Consumers now move easily between the two, often using mobile phones to compare prices or social media for inspiration before making a purchase. This digital trend is particularly strong in the electronics and fashion sectors, though physical stores remain popular for those who wish to feel or test a product before buying.
The shift is also visible in the changing high street. Over the last decade, retailers in the telecom, computing, and consumer electronics sectors have significantly reduced the number of their physical branches. Consequently, their share of revenue from online sales has grown substantially.
Retail sector
For the retail sector as a whole, the bank forecasts a 1 per cent rise in spending for 2026. While purchasing power is improving due to higher wages and lower inflation, consumers remain cautious. Geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on public confidence, especially regarding large luxury purchases.
Despite the growth, shopkeepers face persistent structural challenges. Labour shortages, difficulty finding successors for businesses, and rising operational costs threaten the continuity of many stores. Competition is also intensifying as global giants like Amazon and ultra-cheap platforms such as Shein and Temu increase their market dominance.
ABN AMRO predicts that supermarkets will see a modest recovery with a 0.5 per cent increase in sales, reversing last year’s 0.6 per cent decline. However, the market remains highly competitive, with shoppers focusing heavily on prices and promotions, widening the gap between traditional supermarkets and discounters.
DIY market
Finally, the DIY sector is set to grow by 3 per cent in 2026. A shortage of affordable tradespeople is driving more homeowners to handle their own maintenance and sustainability projects. This has led to a rising demand for ready-made kits, instructional videos, and professional assembly services.
