The Netherlands may no longer be able to fully meet its electricity demand by 2030, bringing the risk of shortages closer. High-voltage grid operator TenneT issued this warning in its Supply Security Monitor 2026, an annual report submitted to the Ministry of Economic Affairs. In all scenarios examined, the country faces electricity shortages in 2030 that exceed the maximum permitted four hours per year. In last year’s report, TenneT expected such shortages only after 2030.
Supply security is considered adequate if electricity demand exceeds supply for no more than four hours a year. Under the Dutch standard, a limited shortage is therefore allowed. TenneT now warns that this limit may be exceeded unless action is taken.
The main reason is rising electricity demand. This is driven in part by the growing number of electric vehicles. At the same time, production capacity is expected to fall short by 2030. If shortages occur, power outages could affect parts of the country. These issues are most likely in winter, particularly in the morning and evening when energy use is highest.
TenneT has urged the ministry to act quickly. The grid operator recommends building strategic reserves and ensuring enough capacity is available at all times. Energy suppliers would receive compensation for holding reserve capacity that can be used when needed. Without such support, it is not profitable for operators to keep these installations running for only a few days each year.
TenneT advises that this reserve system should be operational by the winter of 2029–2030
