Middle East conflict

The IMO reports that around 1,500 ships and 20,000 crew members remain stranded in the Persian Gulf due to the near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Some vessels have been stuck for weeks, and an evacuation plan is being prepared once tensions ease.

Exports slow and Middle East tensions cloud the outlook, but consumption and several key sectors signal underlying resilience.

Prime Minister Rob Jetten has rejected calls to delay government spending on security and innovation, arguing that global instability makes these long-term investments more critical than ever. Despite soaring fuel prices and mounting pressure to provide immediate financial relief to households, the latest Spring Memorandum reveals that the Cabinet has almost no fiscal breathing room left. Jetten warned that halting current projects to fund short-term aid would be a mistake, leaving the government to navigate a difficult balancing act between its ambitious coalition goals and the urgent needs of struggling families.

Oil prices have risen further following attacks on key energy facilities in the Middle East. Missiles struck Qatar's main gas production site. At the pump in the Netherlands, recommended prices for petrol and diesel continued to rise above €2.50 for a litre.

The AEX index closed down 0.2 percent at 1000.62 points. Stock exchanges in Frankfurt, Paris, and London also dropped by up to 0.7 percent.

Inflation could be significantly higher this year due to the war in the Middle East, the CPB warns in its latest forecast. Both the baseline estimate and the risk scenario carry considerable uncertainty. If energy markets remain disrupted, inflation could end up more than a quarter higher than in the CPB’s standard projection, which currently expects inflation to ease to 2.3 percent. It remains highly uncertain how long the conflict will impede oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz or prompt Gulf states to reduce energy production.

Around 9,000 Dutch citizens in the Middle East have registered with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for emergency assistance as the Friday afternoon deadline for applications approaches. While the high number of submissions highlights widespread concern, officials clarified that this does not represent the exact number of people requiring repatriation, as some travellers have already departed independently or submitted duplicate forms. Assistance is strictly reserved for Dutch nationals and their family members who reside in the Netherlands; consequently, those living permanently in the region, such as in Dubai, are not eligible for government-led evacuation flights.

The ECB is on guard about the impact of the Middle East conflict on eurozone inflation amid sharply rising oil and gas prices. Policymakers call the situation volatile and say it is too early to judge the implications for future rate decisions; the bank is expected to hold rates at its next meeting.