The war in the Middle East is making flying significantly more expensive for Air France‑KLM. The Franco‑Dutch airline group expects to spend 2.4 billion dollars more on fuel in 2026 than in 2025, bringing its total fuel bill to 9.3 billion dollars this year. Despite that pressure, the company managed to improve its financial results in the first quarter, closing with a warning that the full impact is still ahead.
Fewer rivals, higher ticket prices
The war has had one unexpected upside for the airline group. When Gulf states closed their airspace, thousands of flights across the industry were cancelled, sharply reducing competition on key routes. That was especially noticeable on routes to and from Asia, where Gulf carriers such as Emirates and Qatar Airways are major players. With those airlines barely able to operate on those routes, Air France and KLM stepped in, flying more frequently to Asia and benefiting from notably higher ticket prices as demand for available seats climbed.
For passengers, this means that long‑haul trips to and from Asia may be more expensive and less crowded, with fewer alternate carriers to choose from. At the same time, Air France‑KLM has gained a stronger position on certain corridors, which could translate into higher yields per ticket without a proportional increase in capacity.
Trimmed outlook
Despite those windfalls, the group has grown more cautious about the rest of the year. Air France‑KLM now expects to fly 2 to 4 percent more in 2026 than in 2025. This is a downward revision from its earlier forecast of 3 to 5 percent capacity growth. The company is effectively scaling back its expansion plans as fuel‑cost uncertainty rises.
So far, however, the war has had little visible effect on travel behaviour. Bookings for Air France, KLM, and budget subsidiary Transavia in April were barely different from the same period last year. This suggests that passengers are continuing to fly, even as tickets get more expensive and the geopolitical picture worsens. Demand for air travel appears to be holding up, at least for now.
Delayed pain for passengers and the airline
Higher energy prices take time to filter into kerosene costs. This means the disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not yet fully shown up in the financial numbers. Also, the group has hedged two‑thirds of its kerosene consumption for this year. Those hedge contracts are providing an interim buffer against rising prices and helping soften the immediate hit on the bottom line.
In the near term, the company is already expecting 1.1 billion dollars in additional fuel costs. To cushion this blow, Air France‑KLM has introduced a hiring freeze and cut spending on business travel and external consultants.
For passengers, the clearest consequence is continued pressure on ticket prices. Additionally, the airline will limit extra capacity for new routes or more flights.
@anp | NEWSBRAINPORT
