Strait of Hormuz

The war in the Middle East is pushing Air France‑KLM’s fuel bill up by 2.4 billion dollars this year, with higher ticket prices and a trimmed growth plan the most visible effects for passengers.

Exports slow and Middle East tensions cloud the outlook, but consumption and several key sectors signal underlying resilience.

Global crop prices have surged to their highest level since 2023, driven by the Iran war, supply disruptions, and extreme weather, raising concerns over rising food costs worldwide.

Oil prices plunged by approximately 11% on Friday following the announcement that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened to commercial shipping. The strategic waterway, which carries 20% of the world's oil, had been largely closed by Iran during recent hostilities, causing significant market volatility. This de-escalation led US crude to fall to $83.30 and Brent crude to $87.90 a barrel, while European gas prices also dropped by nearly 8% as fears of a prolonged energy supply crisis began to fade.

The aviation industry faces potential flight cancellations within six weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, as trade association BARIN warns of an impending kerosene shortage. While major hubs like Schiphol currently have sufficient stocks, long-haul intercontinental flights are expected to be the first cut to conserve fuel if the vital shipping route stays blocked. With Southeast Asian nations already buying up European supplies to offset their own regional shortages, experts suggest that smaller airports across Europe and the UK could soon struggle to secure fuel, even as major carriers like KLM and Ryanair begin drafting contingency plans for disrupted deliveries in May.

The Netherlands is ready to support a military mission to restore safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz, Foreign Minister Tom Berendsen said after a meeting of forty countries. The coalition is also considering new economic and diplomatic pressure on Iran.

ING says the Dutch economy is now less exposed to high energy prices than in 2022. Energy‑intensive industries have shrunk, while sectors like machinery and chip manufacturing have grown, making the overall economy more resilient to a new energy shock.

Mortgage rates in the Netherlands have increased due to the Iran conflict. First‑time buyers, as well as buyers in major cities and the new‑build market, are particularly likely to feel the impact, according to ING Research.