House prices in the Netherlands are expected to continue rising this year and next year. However, increased supply is cooling the housing market. Rabobank, the country’s largest mortgage lender, has revised its outlook after previously forecasting stable prices for the rest of the year.
According to Rabobank economists, the owner-occupied housing market has remained resilient despite the conflict in the Middle East, higher interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainty. Home sales remain strong and prices are still increasing, although the pace of growth has been slowing. Economists say this is largely due to an increase in the number of former rental properties being put up for sale.
Rabobank expects house prices to rise by an average of 4.2% in 2026, mainly because of wage growth and continued housing shortages. The bank forecasts a further 3.2% increase in 2027.
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The growth rate for existing owner-occupied homes has been slowing since the spring of 2025. “But we are not seeing an acceleration of this trend following the start of the conflict in the Middle East,” said housing market economist Stefan Groot. He said the war’s effects on the housing market appear limited for now. According to Groot, increased supply rather than geopolitical uncertainty is driving the market slowdown.
The sale of former rental homes is playing a major role in this trend. Rabobank said the continued sale of rental properties has increased the number of transactions while reducing pressure on prices. “Through this route, 39,000 homes entered the market over the past four quarters. Although the market is cooling down compared to last year, it remains very tight. Due to the persistent housing shortage, house prices continue to rise,” Groot said.
Affordability remains a major problem
Rabobank believes the wave of rental home sales has likely reached its peak and will gradually decline. However, affordability remains a major concern. The bank estimates that a household with an average income still falls about €80,000 short of being able to buy a typical owner-occupied home.
Although many building permits have recently been issued, Rabobank does not expect a strong increase in housing construction in the coming years. The bank cited uncertainty surrounding pressure on the electricity grid and restrictions linked to nitrogen emissions. Sales of newly built owner-occupied homes are also falling because supply does not always match demand.
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