The long‑running rise in the number of employed people has stopped, while the number of people without work is increasing again. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that this marks the end of a trend that lasted for nearly a decade. Labour market expert Ton Wilthagen says the figures are unmistakable signs of an aging population and a warning that the Netherlands must take action to maintain its economic resilience.
2026
In the second quarter, 9.6 million people aged 15 to the state pension age were employed. That number has barely changed for two years, despite steady annual growth between 2014 and 2024. At the same time, the number of non‑employed people has risen by 100,000 over the past two years to 8.5 million, reversing a decline that had lasted for many years. CBS attributes this shift primarily to the growing number of people who have passed the retirement age.
Wilthagen describes the current phase as “light aging”, noting that the demographic peak is still about twenty years away. Even after that peak, he warns, the ratio between workers and non‑workers will remain structurally imbalanced. The figures, he says, are a preview of long‑term pressure on the labour market and the welfare state.
Fewer Working Hours
Alongside demographic changes, workers have begun working slightly fewer hours per week on average. Women have increased their working hours over the past four years, while men have reduced theirs. Wilthagen sees this as a cultural shift of “we can do less” layered on top of the ageing population. This trend complicates efforts to maintain labour supply at a level that can support public services and social security.
The issue has sparked renewed political debate. In recent months, discussions within the Dutch consensus model have focused on how the welfare state can be sustained as the population ages. VVD parliamentary leader Ruben Brekelmans recently urged young people to work full‑time to help address labour shortages, though such appeals have also raised questions about work‑life balance and long‑term feasibility.
Effeciency
Wilthagen stresses that the number of hours worked is only part of the equation. Equally important is how those hours are used. He compares labour to energy: a resource that must be used sparingly and not wasted. Strategic choices are needed, he says, but they are difficult to enforce. “You cannot force people to make a specific school choice,” he warns, highlighting the limits of policy intervention.
CBS Chief Economist Peter Hein van Mulligen also identifies aging as the main driver behind the rising number of non‑workers. He notes that the number of people working beyond the state pension age has nearly doubled in ten years to 300,000, but this is not a structural solution. Most of these older workers only work a few hours, meaning their contribution cannot offset the broader demographic shift.
