The eurozone’s trade surplus is likely to fall sharply this year because of the war in the Middle East. The surplus, which is defined as the difference between exports and imports, could even turn into a trade deficit if the conflict around Iran drags on. A trade deficit means that the eurozone imports more goods and services than it exports.
Baseline
In ING’s baseline scenario, disruptions to oil and gas transport through the Strait of Hormuz last until July and then ease gradually. The trade surplus is expected to fall to 49 billion euros in 2026, down from 149 billion euros in 2025. In a more pessimistic scenario, with stronger and longer‑lasting disruptions until August, the eurozone could face a trade deficit of 115 billion euros in 2026.
History
During the 2022 energy crisis, the euro area’s trade surplus also briefly turned into a deficit and then rebounded. ING stresses that the current surplus is still about 30 percent lower than pre-pandemic levels. Alongside higher energy import costs and US tariffs, economists mainly blame strong competition from China.
China
That competition has grown since the pandemic and is now especially visible in the eurozone’s core export sectors. These sectors made up nearly 70 percent of eurozone exports in 2025. In vehicles, the eurozone used to export more to China than it imported, but this has reversed as China dominates the electric‑vehicle market. Imports of electric machinery from China have also risen sharply.
ING economists therefore see Chinese competition as the main structural risk to the eurozone’s trade balance. “If the eurozone cannot regain its competitiveness in the core industries, which is not easy, the era of a large goods‑export surplus supporting economic growth could well be over”, they warn.
@anp | NEWSBRAINPORT
