According to ING, the recent increase in Dutch mortgage rates since the outbreak of the Iran conflict in late February is largely driven by rising interest rates in the money and capital markets. The key capital‑market benchmark for mortgages is now roughly 0.35 percentage points higher than before the conflict began.
Energy prices have surged massively in recent weeks. Investors expect this to fuel higher inflation and prompt central banks to raise interest rates. At present, markets are pricing in two European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes this year. This expectation is pushing up long‑term interest rates, which play a crucial role in determining mortgage rates, ING explains.
First‑time buyers are feeling the impact most. Due to higher mortgage rates, they can now borrow roughly 3 percent less. Still, ING notes that the overall effect remains limited because the rate increases are relatively modest. Homeowners moving to a new property are less affected, as they can often transfer their existing—typically lower—mortgage rate to their next home.
The rise in rates is also noticeable in major cities and the new‑build market. These segments include many first‑time buyers, and supply is increasing. New‑build projects are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes because the period between purchase and completion is longer.
Looking ahead, the direction of the interest‑rate market will depend heavily on developments in the conflict and whether energy supplies resume, ING says. The strategically important Strait of Hormuz, critical for global oil transport, has been nearly closed since the start of the war. If the conflict continues, mortgage rates may rise further, the bank warns.
@anp | NEWSBRAINPORT
