Rabobank expects the Dutch economy to grow by 1.3 percent this year and 1.1 percent next year. According to the bank, this increase is mainly driven by higher government spending and stronger consumer demand. The new forecast is more optimistic than the one published in June. At that time, Rabobank predicted growth of 1 percent for this year and 0.8 percent for 2027.
Economists at the bank warn that the outlook is more uncertain than usual. The ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States is having a major impact on global markets. The bank notes that the Jetten cabinet does not have a majority in either chamber, which makes it unclear whether all planned spending measures will be implemented.
Inflation
Rabobank assumes that the United States and Iran will remain in a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, energy prices are expected to stay high for a longer period. These higher costs are increasingly reflected in the prices of goods and services. Inflation is expected to rise from 2.8 percent this year to 3.4 percent next year.
Influx
Consumer spending is rising this year because purchasing power has improved. Wages are currently increasing faster than prices. Rabobank expects this trend to slow next year. The bank says that the additional 0.6 per cent growth in consumer spending will mainly result from population growth.
Corporate investments are expected to stagnate after a decline in 2025. Confidence among manufacturing companies has improved in recent months, but higher interest rates and energy costs continue to limit investment activity.
@anp | NEWSBRAINPORT
