Higher energy and fuel prices linked to the war in the Middle East will have a limited effect on the finances of most Dutch households, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) reports. The study shows that while average income losses are modest, some households, particularly those with lower to median incomes that use more gas and drive more, will feel the impact more sharply.
The CPB modelled two scenarios. Under market expectations, the average negative effect on disposable income this year and next is below 1%. In a more severe scenario, if the conflict in Iran drags on and energy prices stay high, the average loss rises to about 1% in 2026 and roughly 2% in 2027. These figures remain well below the median purchasing‑power loss of about 4% seen during the 2022 energy crisis after the war in Ukraine.
However, the distribution of effects is uneven. Households with lower or median incomes that consume a lot of gas and log high car mileage can see purchasing‑power losses of up to 6%. Even households with above‑median incomes may face losses up to 4% if they are heavy energy consumers.
The CPB warns the impact could grow next year as more households face higher gas bills when energy contracts expire ahead of winter. This will weigh more heavily on lower‑income households because energy costs make up a larger share of their budgets.
The study also notes that owning technologies such as heat pumps and electric cars reduces sensitivity to fuel price spikes. Although these measures could benefit lower‑income groups most, in practice, they are currently more common among higher‑income households.
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